About the model
What MLBReturnLine does
A quick guide to what the site is for, what the dates mean, and how the return estimate is built.
What this site does
MLBReturnLine estimates return windows for open MLB injured-list stints. Each player page shows an early date, a projected date, and a late date instead of pretending there is one exact answer.
How to use it
Search for any player from the home page, or browse the league-wide IL board and filter by team. The player page shows the return window, recent injury news, and the biggest factors pushing the estimate sooner or later.
How the model works
The forecast starts with historical injury outcomes by injury type and IL class, then blends in live signals such as rehab progress, injury news, similar past cases, and each team's historical return pace. ESPN timing can still influence the scored estimate, but the public-facing chips focus on baseball and injury context rather than a cited source list.
What the dates mean
Early is a reasonable optimistic outcome. Projected is the middle estimate. Late is the slower end of the likely range. The site is trying to describe uncertainty honestly, not guarantee a return date.